76ers vs. Warriors Odds
|Time||10 p.m. ET|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.|
The struggling Philadelphia 76ers will play the last leg of their six-game road trip tonight against the best team in the league, the Golden State Warriors. It has been very difficult for the 76ers just trying to manage games with how many injuries they have had, and that is not even factoring in Ben Simmons.
The Warriors have been playing without Klay Thompson and James Wiseman all season long, and that has allowed their bench to thrive with increased roles. This is a massive 10.5-point spread and a relatively low total. Can the Warriors keep destroying every team that comes in their way again?
Who is Playing for the 76ers Tonight?
After a blazing-hot start to the season, the 76ers have won just two of their last eight games and now have a record of 10-8. They are coming off of a road victory against the Sacramento Kings where they won without any of the starters from last year’s team in the lineup. That may mean more as a detriment to the Kings than a positive to the 76ers, but still impressive.
The big news with the 76ers is the status of their two studs, Joel Embiid and Tobias Harris. Embiid has been out for the last eight games and Harris sat out last game. Combined, Embiid and Harris have missed a total of 16 games. Embiid (21.4 PPG) is out tonight and Harris (20.6 PPG) is currently listed as questionable.
In the past eight games with Embiid sidelined, the 76ers have failed to cover the spread five times. To no surprise, they are a different team without Embiid on the floor. Their Offensive Rating has dropped from 116.8 to 110.7, while their Defensive Rating has dropped from 108.1 to 115.1. Their Pace has stayed similar, but those are very sizable drops in production.
Not only is Embiid out, but there are many injuries for the 76ers. We will need to monitor the status of Harris, Seth Curry and Danny Green who are all listed as questionable to play tonight. The 76ers’ make-shift lineups has been finding their groove lately, winning two of their last three games, but this matchup against the Warriors is difficult. The 76ers are 10.5-point underdogs.
The Warriors rank first overall in Defensive Rating this season, while they are allowing a league-best 101.1 points per game. Despite Wiseman still on the mend and true center Kevon Looney only playing 18.3 minutes per game, the Warriors rank third in Rebounding Percentage this season. The Warriors are also allowing only 39.9 points per game in the paint this season, which is once again the league’s best.
Will the Warriors Play Down to Their Competition?
The 15-2 Warriors continue to breeze through the league and should have no trouble doing so again tonight against the short-handed 76ers. This will be their third game where they are coming off of two days of rest. Their two previous games were at home when they covered as favorites in both games, while the under hit the total in both games.
For the season, the Warriors have covered the spread in 12 of their 17 games, with the under hitting in 11 of those. They have covered in seven of their 10 home games with the under hitting in six of those 10. The Warriors have also covered 10 of 15 games as the favorite, while the under has hit in 10 of those 15 games. Noticing a trend? The under and covering spreads.
It is rare this far into the season that you can discuss their losses since there are so few of them. In both games they had a lead after three quarters, but failed to close out the game. The Warriors lost at home in overtime to the Memphis Grizzlies by three points in their only home loss of the season. They had a season-high 22 turnovers. Their most recent loss was on the road against the Charlotte Hornets where they made a season-low nine 3-pointers.
The Warriors are led by the MVP front-runner Stephen Curry. The 13-year veteran is averaging a career-high in 3-pointers made with 5.4 per game, free- throw percentage with 96.2% and rebounds with 5.9 per game. He is second in the entire league in points with 28.4 per game. He has been incredible, but it’s not just him. The Warriors are an incredibly deep team. They lead the league in Assist Percentage this season with 70.8% which is a crazy number.
The Warriors’ defense has been phenomenal, but their offense is arguably better. They rank second in Offensive Rating and have scored the most points in the league with 114.2 per game. They also will face the 76ers without Embiid and potentially also without Harris, Curry and Green.
With how well the Warriors’ bench has been playing this season, it is not surprising how often they have covered the spread as favorites. Seeing the lofty 10.5-point spread may be intimidating, but keep in mind that this Warriors team has covered the spread at a 67% clip as favorites over a 15-game sample size.
I would monitor the line on our NBA odds dashboard to see if it changes when more news on Harris, Curry and Green come out later in the day. However, regardless of their status I love the line where it is right now and would bet it up to 11.5 points. The under is also definitely in play here too.
The best value for this line is currently on FanDuel, but make sure to shop around for the best value and line. Let’s just hope the Warriors don’t play down to their competition tonight and continue to roll the 76ers.
Pick: Warriors -10.5 (-110); Would bet up to -11.5