The Phoenix Suns face elimination after their impressive 2-0 start against the Milwaukee Bucks. They’ll have to steal a win in hostile territory tonight, as the series will head back to Fiserv Forum for a pivotal Game 6. But with Milwaukee on a 3-0 streak, it’ll be difficult for Phoenix to overcome the Bucks’ momentum, which has been anchored by tough defensive play.
Here are the top picks for the evening’s action.
1. P.J. Tucker Under 4.5 Rebounds | -110 at FD Sportsbook
The Bucks have asked Tucker to do less and less as this series has progressed. The 6-foot-5 forward remains in the starting lineup, but his minutes have fallen from 34 per game in Games 1 and 2 to just 24 in Game 5. That’s despite Milwaukee shrinking their rotation from nine players to eight, too.
Of course, we can blame his reduced workload on foul trouble, as Tucker finished Games 3 through 5 with exactly five fouls. However, the Bucks won each of those games, so I doubt that they’re that concerned about preserving his minutes.
As Tucker’s share of the minutes has fallen, so have his rebounds. He averaged four per game in Games 1 and 2, but that number sits at three per game for Games 3, 4, and 5. Although he cleared the over with exactly five boards in Games 2 and 4, he hit a series-low with just one rebound in Game 5. That poor showing reflects his regular-season numbers against Phoenix, as he finished those matchups with zero (for HOU, Jan 20) and three (for MIL, Apr. 19) total boards.
Currently, you can get this line at near-even odds. I would ride the trends and bank on another underwhelming night for Tucker on the glass.
2. Chris Paul Over 30.5 Points and Assists | -110 at FD Sportsbook
I’m playing a game of chicken with Jrue Holiday by taking this prop. Holiday has played some elite defense against the Suns’ guards this series, but it remains to be seen whether he’ll primarily defend Paul or Devin Booker in Game 6. Milwaukee moved Holiday over to Booker midway through Game 5 after the shooting guard roasted them for 42 points in Game 4 and 27 more by the time they made the shift.
Following that defensive adjustment, Paul scored 12 points and recorded five assists over the remainder of Game 5. He finished the game with 21 points and 11 assists, his highest mark since Game 1.
If the Bucks leave Holiday on the red-hot Devin Booker, Paul should channel his Game 1 magic. That gives him a chance to clear this prop on points alone, as he dropped exactly 32 of them in that matchup. Although Paul has cleared this total three times this series, including one game in which he faced coverage from Holiday, you’re essentially betting on Milwaukee’s defensive assignments by taking this prop.
3. Bonus Plus Money Prop: P.J. Tucker Under 3.5 Rebounds | +168 at FD Sportsbook
NBA Prop Bets
- Bobby Portis Jr. Prop Bet Odds
- Chris Paul Prop Bet Odds
- Deandre Ayton Prop Bet Odds
- Devin Booker Prop Bet Odds
- P.J. Tucker Prop Bet Odds
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