|Moneyline||+144 / -172|
|Time||9 p.m. ET|
|Odds as of Saturday via FanDuel.|
The Phoenix Suns host the Milwaukee Bucks on Saturday in a pivotal NBA Finals Game 5 showdown.
Both teams won their previous home games and the Suns are now looking to protect their home court for the third consecutive game this series. Chris Paul struggled in the Phoenix’s Game 4 loss, scoring just 10 points on 13 total shots. However, this presents a lucrative opportunity for us to buy low on his Game 5 scoring total.
Bottom line, expect Paul to bounce back as a scorer and lead our Single Game Parlay at +268 odds via FanDuel.
Chris Paul — Over 20.5 Points (-122)
Paul had a poor showing in Game 4, but I will confidently buy the dip on his scoring total in this contest. He had an uncharacteristically poor shooting night, missing a handful of open mid-range shots he normally converts. And simply like the value of betting on him making similar shots when he and the Suns are back home.
This is clearly a pivotal game in this series, so I expect Paul to come out ready to score and take control of this showdown.
In the Western Conference Finals, Paul stepped up in a similar spot in Game 6 against the Los Angeles Clippers when he scored a game-high 41 points on just 24 shots. He will be focused on scoring aggressively by getting to his most comfortable spots on the floor and feeding off the home crowd.
Paul has scored at least 21 points in four of the last five home games he has played in, so I love the value of him doing so again in this spot. I will take Paul to score up to 21.5 points at -130 odds or better.
Mikal Bridges — Over 10.5 Points (-110)
Bridges is an underrated scorer. After two consecutive quiet games on the road, I love the value on him to score at least 11 points in this Game 5 matchup.
The last time Bridges played at home he dropped 27 points in the Suns’ Game 2 win, flashing his ability to score at all three levels. He should find himself open for several 3-point attempts in Game 5, and I not only like his chances of cashing in open 3s, but also scoring when he attacks aggressive close-outs from the Bucks.
I expect him to play much better now that he and the Suns are home. Bridges is too talented of a player (who is expected to go at least 25 minutes) for such a low point total. He can not only convert open looks from beyond the arc, but can get to the rim and make Milwaukee pay for conceding mid-range shots.
He will have his opportunities alongside Paul, Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton, and I will bet him to score up to 12 points at -140 odds or better.