With only three late NBA games on the schedule today, we are going to focus on two props. Since it is only two, I thought I should provide you with some juice. Let’s dive in and win some money on this Sunday!
We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out two prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Miles Bridges, Under 3.5 Assists (+105)
|Hawks vs. Hornets||Hawks -7|
|Time | TV||6 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The big news in this matchup between the Atlanta Hawks and the Charlotte Hornets is the Hornets will be playing without four key players due to COVID protocols. LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, Mason Plumlee, and Jaden McDaniels are all out tonight, which is why the Hawks are favored so heavily.
Miles Bridges is definitely the most talented player on the floor tonight for the Hornets, and he should draw a lot of attention from the Hawks. They have also really improved their defense as of late. They started off slow, but over the past two weeks of play, the Hawks rank sixth in Defensive Rating. Clint Capela is a staple defensively and John Collins also protects the rim at a high level.
The Hornets lead the league in points with 114.9 per game but are only implied for 106.5 points tonight. A big reason why is the loss of LaMelo Ball. He leads the Hornets this season in points, rebounds, assists, and steals. He makes this offense click, and without him, I think Bridges and the Hornets in general will have a tough time scoring.
It’s definitely a little weird betting a Miles Bridges assists prop, but seeing the juice has me very intrigued. He should take on more of a scoring role tonight with all of the Hornets injuries, and he hasn’t been getting many assists in general. Bridges has had fewer than 3.5 assists in four straight games and in seven of his last eight games. I love the value we get on this prop tonight.
I would take this where it is right now. I highly doubt it moves down, but if it moves up to 4.5 I would hammer this even more. The best value on this prop is on DraftKings right now, and I recommend taking the juice before the value moves.
Christian Wood, Over 18.5 Points (+100)
|Rockets vs. Pelicans||Pelicans -2.5|
|Time | TV||7 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
With the Phoenix Suns losing their 18-game winning streak, the longest winning streak in the league belongs to the 6-16 Houston Rockets. They have won five-straight games as they host the New Orleans Pelicans tonight.
The Rockets are led by Christian Wood who has been phenomenal recently. If you remove the game in which Wood left early, he is averaging 23.25 points per game and 15.25 rebounds per game. He also has an average Usage Rate of 24.8% during that time. More on his usage rate a little bit later in the article.
This is a favorable matchup against the New Orleans Pelicans for Wood and the Rockets as the Pelicans rank 27th in Defensive Rating this season. They have allowed their opponents to shoot 47.3% from the field, which is the third-highest in the league. Wood should be able to get whatever shot that he wants tonight, but he just needs to stay out of foul trouble against Jonas Valanciunas.
Another big boost to Wood tonight is the fact that the Rockets are playing without Kevin Porter Jr. and Jalen Green. Using our On/Off tool, Wood has a massive +9.1% Usage Rate without Porter Jr. and Green on the floor this season. I am unsure that the Rockets can win six straight games without those key pieces, but I feel very confident in Christian Wood filling up the scoreboard in this matchup given the extra opportunities he will get.
Wood has had over 18.5 points in his last three full games played, and our model has him projected for 19.6 points tonight. I love this prop at even money and would even bet it up to 19.5 points. Wood should get every opportunity he can handle tonight. Shop around for the best value for this prop, but right now the best price is on DraftKings and BetMGM.