This Saturday features an awesome seven-game slate filled with great props. It was difficult to narrow them down, but there are three props listed below that caught my eye. Let’s start post All-Star Break with a great weekend!
We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Evan Mobley, Under 3.5 Assists (-115)
|Cavaliers vs. Wizards||Cavaliers -7.5|
|Time | TV||8 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The Cleveland Cavaliers have lost three straight games, but this is a great get-right spot against the Washington Wizards as they are fairly heavy home favorites. They need to keep up with the rest of the tightly packed Eastern Conference.
Tonight draws a bit difficult of a task as they are decimated with injuries to their backcourt. Darius Garland, Caris LeVert, and Rajon Rondo are all out tonight, which will likely move Brandon Goodwin into the starting lineup. Those guards being out does not increase the assist upside for Evan Mobley however.
Mobley has had two or fewer assists in nine of his last 11 games. Taking this prop under 2.5 assists with juice on PointsBet is also very intriguing, but we’ll stick with under 3.5 assists for this article. Scoring and rebounding is where Mobley thrives. Goodwin is more than capable of running this offense.
Not only are the Cavaliers heavy home favorites, but this game total is by far the lowest on the slate at 204.5 points. This game will be played at a very slow pace as the Cavaliers and Wizards both rank in the bottom 10 in Pace this season. Our model has Mobley projected for only 2.5 assists tonight.
As I mentioned, I don’t mind the idea of bringing down this prop to 2.5 assists and increasing the value. However, BetMGM has the best line and value at 3.5 assists tonight which is where I will be. Take this prop at whatever line is best for you.
Devin Vassell, Over 18.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-115)
|Heat vs. Spurs||Heat -8.5|
|Time | TV||8 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The San Antonio Spurs are coming off of a double overtime thriller where they won 157-153 against the Washington Wizards. It was the second most points scored in a game all season. The Spurs run it back in a much tougher spot.
The Miami Heat present a much more difficult matchup as they rank in the top five in Defensive Rating and bottom five in Pace this season. The Heat are tied for the best record in the Eastern Conference and have won seven of their last nine games. They are heavy home favorites against the Spurs tonight.
Despite the Spurs being underdogs and in a tough matchup, the Devin Vassell props are popping like crazy in our model. Deciding which one to take was pretty difficult, so I decided to take all of his points, rebounds, and assists.
Vassell started and played 42 minutes last night despite being in foul trouble. He has averaged 14 points over the last six games and has had double-digit field goal attempts in each game. He has gotten over 18.5 points, rebounds, and assists in five of those six games and is projected for 22.4 in total tonight.
There are many different ways to go with Vassell tonight, despite the tough matchup. Dejounte Murray takes up a majority of the team’s usage, but Vassell is still starting and playing enough minutes to fill up the scoreboard. Keldon Johnson is also out tonight, opening up more minutes on the wing for Vassell. I would take this Vassell prop up to 19.5 tonight. He could get there on points alone.
Nikola Jokic, Over 27.5 Points (-105)
|Nuggets vs. Kings||Nuggets -8|
|Time | TV||9 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The Denver Nuggets just played the Sacramento Kings two nights ago and won 128-110 on the road. They will play at home against the Kings as they are eight-point home favorites and are implied to score the second-highest total on the slate (122.5 points).
This matchup also features the highest total on the slate at 237 points. Nikola Jokic will be heavily involved as he is most of the time. However, he can really take advantage of this Kings defense with his scoring. They allow the most points in the paint this season at 52 per game, and he will feast down low.
The Kings did bolster their frontcourt during the trade deadline by adding Domantas Sabonis, but he still won’t be able to slow down Jokic in this spot. In their last meeting Jokic finished with 25 points as he only shot the ball 15 times. He went 9-15 from the field and only 5-7 from the charity stripe.
Jokic also plays a little better at home compared to the road. Both his field goal percentage and 3-point percentage increase, and he is averaging 1.2 more points per game playing at home. The Kings are just 7-21 on the road this season. If they can keep this close, Jokic will have a field day in this matchup.
Our model has Jokic projected for 28.2 points tonight, and the best value for this prop is at DraftKings where it is almost even-money. Jokic is a triple-double threat every time he touches the floor, so taking him to triple-double at +195 on DraftKings is also very appealing. Jokic will dominate tonight.