There are only two days left in the NBA regular season. With every team playing Sunday, there are only three games on this main slate and only one team that truly needs to win. Monitor the news as one of the props below is a player who may sit given the team is already locked into their playoff seed.
We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out two prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Jordan Poole, Over 26.5 Points (-114)
|Spurs vs. Warriors||Warriors -6.5|
|Time | TV||8:30 p.m. ET | NBA TV|
The Golden State Warriors are the only team on this small slate that is playing for something. They lead the Mavericks by a half-game for the 3-seed in the Western Conference, but lose the tiebreaker to the head-to-head record.
The Warriors will need to win tonight against the Spurs and Sunday against the Pelicans to secure the No. 3 seed. Both games are on the road, but they will likely be favored in both. They are favored by 6.5 points tonight.
The Spurs are resting nearly all of their starters tonight, which also helps the Warriors. The best option on this team right now is easily Jordan Poole. He has been incredible filling in for Stephen Curry, who will be out until the playoffs.
In 15 games without Curry this season, Poole is averaging 26.3 points and has a 30.8% usage rate. This line does feel a little high, but he has scored over this mark in two of his last four games and is averaging 27.5 points per game during that time. Take a step further, Poole is averaging 26.9 points per game in his last eight games. With no Curry, Poole is option one for the Warriors.
The fact that this game means something for the Warriors is why I am taking this over. The Spurs rank third in pace as the Warriors are implied for 113.5 points. Poole will have a hand in plenty of those points as he will have so much opportunity to get this over. I like the line at 26.5 points and wouldn’t go higher.
Paul George, Under 20.5 Points (-120)
|Clippers vs. Kings||Clippers -11.5|
|Time | TV||9:30 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The Los Angeles Clippers are a team that is locked into their seed for the play-in tournament and don’t have much to play for tonight. They host the Kings, who are already eliminated from playoff contention, and the Clips are double-digit favorites. I have a hard time seeing much playing time for the Clippers starters.
The main starter being Paul George, who looks like an incredible play on paper against the Kings, who rank 27th in defensive rating and ninth in pace this season. The Kings have won four of their last seven games, but all four were against teams that are basically tanking the rest of the regular season.
George has had back-to-back games scoring under 20 points as he has played under 30 minutes in both games as well. He has only played in four games since returning from injury. He has two really good scoring games and two poor scoring games. This is also the first end of a back-to-back.
I would be shocked if the Clippers stretched George’s minutes tonight with their playoff seed locked and this being a back-to-back. That is my biggest concern. Scoring 21 or more points for George in this matchup seems easy, but I get the impression he will be very limited tonight.
I don’t mind if you want to dabble at under 19.5 points as he has hit that in back-to-back games and you may get some juice on that number as well. Whichever prop you take for George I would strongly consider the under in this spot.