Tonight features a small three-game NBA slate, headlined by the Atlanta Hawks and Brooklyn Nets game that has a point total well above the other two games. Each game tonight has playoff implications as teams battle for the best possible seed.
We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out two prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Kyrie Irving, Over 3.5 Made 3-Pointers (+135)
|Hawks vs. Nets||Nets -2|
|Time | TV||7:30 p.m. ET | NBA TV|
The best game environment on the slate is this showdown between the Hawks and Nets. The total is the highest on the slate at 240.5 points, which is more than 22 points higher than the next closest game. The Nets are two-point road favorites as both teams fight for the eighth seed in the Play-In Tournament.
Kyrie Irving has found himself in a shooting slump at the wrong time. Irving is shooting just 35.6% from the field over his last four games while averaging 19 points per game. Despite Irving’s struggles shooting the ball, he has made four or more 3-pointers in six of his last eight games.
This matchup features one in which Irving can exploit. The Hawks rank 26th in both defensive rating and 3-point percentage allowed at 36.4%. There will be so many opportunities for Irving to get it going from deep in this game. He has attempted 9.6 3-pointers per game over his last eight games.
Irving will also benefit from Seth Curry and Goran Dragic both being out tonight. It will be the Irving and Kevin Durant show as they try and pull off this big victory on the road against the Hawks. His usage rate should be sky-high.
This prop is coming in with a lot of juice at +135. You could potentially find it at 2.5 if you prefer the safer route, but I prefer the juiced up prop tonight.
Rudy Gobert, Over 26.5 Points + Rebounds (-125)
|Warriors vs. Jazz||Jazz -2|
|Time | TV||8:30 p.m. ET | League Pass|
Both the Jazz and Warriors are struggling lately as we come down the home stretch. The Jazz have lost five of their last six games, while the Warriors have lost seven of their last eight games. Their seeds could change a lot in this final week and a half of games. The Jazz are small road favorites in Golden State.
The Warriors are without Stephen Curry for the rest of the regular season. They rank third in defensive rating this season, but are in a downward spiral lately. They have allowed 111.5 points per game, which is quite high for them.
Rudy Gobert continues to be a monster for the Jazz, especially on the glass. He is leading the league in rebounding, averaging a career-high 14.6 rebounds per game. He is also averaging 15.4 points per game, while shooting a career-high 71.4% from the field.
Our projection model has Gobert at 31.7 points and rebounds tonight. Gobert has destroyed the Warriors in his two matchups this season. He is averaging 16 points and 18.5 rebounds per game. He thrives in this matchup historically.
Since the 2018-19 season, Gobert has played against the Warriors 12 times. In those games he is averaging 16.1 points and 16.6 rebounds per game. He has had 14 or more rebounds in 11 of those 12 games. The Warriors lack of interior presence will be tested.
I would take this prop up to 28.5 points and rebounds.