Happy Halloween! Today we target two great props on the hardwood tonight. With so many high spreads on the slate, I selected two props that are in tight matchups with high game totals.
Both of these players will have ample opportunities to exceed their props tonight due to the game environments they are in. So let’s check it out!
We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Rudy Gobert, Over 13.5 Points (-115)
|Bucks vs. Jazz||Jazz -2|
|Time | TV||7 p.m. ET | NBA TV|
Rudy Gobert and the Utah Jazz matchup against the Milwaukee Bucks tonight. Playing against the Greek Freak (Giannis Antetokounmpo) on Halloween is quite a spooky proposition.
Gobert is off to a quietly dominant start to the season. He is averaging 17.8 points per game and has yet to score fewer than 16 points in a game this season.
The Bucks will be without Brook Lopez and Jrue Holiday again tonight due to injury. That means Giannis will be starting at center for the undersized Bucks who refuse to really play any other big man. With a huge responsibility on the offensive end of the floor, I can’t see Giannis mixing it up with Gobert on the block defensively all that much.
Gobert is shooting an absurd 72.5% from the field this season, which is a career-high. He has yet to attempt a shot from more five feet, so all of his field goal attempts are high percentage shots. Gobert is tied for fifth in the league at both field goal percentage and field goals made within five feet.
He likely won’t get any post-up opportunities, but he will be fed with continuous dump offs by his guards.
If Gobert isn’t dunking the ball or scoring within five feet of the basket, he will be earning his points at the charity stripe. He is shooting a career-high 70.5% from the free throw line this season and has attempted 8.8 free throws per game, which is tied for the second most attempts in the league. Most teams would rather foul him than allow an easy dunk.
Note – If you want more bang for your buck and to play this prop aggressively, I still really like Gobert to score over 14.5 points which is (-105) on DraftKings.
LaMelo Ball, Over 5.5 Assists (-120)
|Hornets vs. Trail Blazers||Trail Blazers -1|
|Time | TV||7 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
LaMelo Ball and the Hornets host the Trail Blazers in what should be an absolute track meet tonight with the total set at 230.5 points.
Both the Trail Blazers and Hornets are top five in Pace this season, with the Trail Blazers leading the entire league. The Hornets lead the league in transition points this season with 27.2 points per game, so this environment will be fantastic for many player props. The crazy transition points is in large part due to Ball pushing the pace every chance he gets.
With Terry Rozier likely back in the lineup tonight, you may think that he will take some assists away from Ball. However, with Rozier in the lineup last season, Ball averaged 1.2 more assists per game and attempted fewer field goal attempts. He relies more on his passing with more scorers around him.
Miles Bridges also needs to be discussed. He is averaging over 20 field goal attempts per game and will dunk everything he can. Similar to Gobert, Bridges is averaging 5.2 field goals made within five feet this season which is tied for the eighth most in the league. Pretty impressive for a forward who can also get his own 3-point shots.
Ball has averaged 6.0 assists per game this season and in our Action Labs Props Dashboard, he is projected for 7.0 assists in this matchup. He will have plenty of opportunities tonight to exceed his 5.5 assists prop in this extremely fast paced environment.