As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to ravage the NBA, books are getting pickier about when to post their prop markets. The dearth of options has led me to feature just one player in today’s column, so we’re limiting our total units wagered accordingly.
Here are my top NBA betting picks for Monday’s action.
Written Picks YTD: 65-65-0 (+11.7u)
Model ATS Picks YTD: 70-56-2 (+7.7u)*
Model ML Picks YTD: 9-14 (+4.0u)*
*Follow me @is_sirois for the model’s picks.
1. Bradley Beal o1.5 Made Threes | -170 at DK Sportsbook
2. SGP: Beal 3+ 3PT + 20+ PTS | +160 (.5u) at DK Sportsbook
We’re targeting Bradley Beal against the Charlotte Hornets tonight. Charlotte has seriously struggled against opposing twos this season, as they have allowed the most made threes per game (4.4) and points per game (24.6) to the position.
Their defensive struggles have led Beal to have a few solid games already this year. In his first matchup with the Hornets, Beal scored 24 points and hit a season-high five three-pointers. He racked up 18 points with a pair of made threes in their next meeting.
This would be a good spot to target Beal even without Washington’s lengthy injury report, but that sweetens the deal a bit. Guards Spencer Dinwiddie, Raul Neto, Aaron Holiday, and Brad Wanamaker have all found their way into the health and safety protocols. That’s left Beal with a lot of extra work — he racked up 29 points and a pair of threes in his first game back against the Cavaliers, and he followed it up with a 27-point showing in 43 minutes against the Bulls.
The juice isn’t our friend here, but the line very much is. Other books have this market set at 2.5, and I would take the money and run before DraftKings catches on.
3. Bradley Beal Double-Double | +120 at DK Sportsbook
This is a bit more exposure to any one individual player than I’d like, but most of the player prop markets haven’t opened yet today, so we’re not left with many options.
The logic here is that the shorthanded Wizards will need Beal to step up by shooting a passing more than usual. They’re without three key backcourt options in Dinwiddie, Holiday, and Neto, all of whom have assist percentages above 15%. Dinwiddie even owns a 27.8%, which puts him just slightly behind Beal at 30.8%
We’ve already seen Beal deliver, too. Washington’s star guard has notched double-doubles in his last two games, both with assists. Although it’s true that Beal only has four double-doubles to his name this year, his modified usage means that you’re still getting value at this price.
Oh, and the market has some shocking disparity on this one. FanDuel has this priced all the way down at -145. Get in on the value at DraftKings before it disappears.
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced sports betting strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.