We’ve got a loaded eight-game slate in the NBA tonight, and betting value abounds. I’ve found a trove of plus-money props in two of the smaller-market games, so get your action down before the juice moves too much.
Here are my top NBA betting picks for Monday’s action.
Written Picks YTD: 23-12-0 (+14.88u)
Total Picks YTD: 38-26-0 (+21.30u)*
*Follow me @is_sirois for any other plays.
1. Jaren Jackson Jr. o2.5 Made Threes | +112 at FD Sportsbook
If the Memphis Grizzlies want to beat the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight, the math says they’ll need a big game from JJJ. Minnesota gives up the fourth-fewest points per game to opposing point guards (19.3), which bodes poorly for Ja Morant. However, they also give up the most points per game to power forwards (27.4) by a two-point margin. Unsurprisingly, they also permit the most made threes to the position (3.35).
We’re targeting this prop because JJJ’s points line has very little value. The total sits at 16.5, which is well above his season average (13.6) and is a number he has only hit twice in nine games. That figure also sits at -104. In contrast, the line for JJJ’s made threes sits barely below his season average (2.3) and is a number he has achieved five times.
Although JJJ is only shooting 33.3% from beyond the arc this year, the attempts have been there for him. He has taken at least eight shots from deep in four games, and he averages seven attempted threes per game.
2. Desmond Bane o2.5 Assists | +140 (.5u) at FD Sportsbook
Another interesting trend I noticed when researching tonight’s slate is that the Timberwolves have allowed the second-fewest assists to point guards. That’s especially surprising because Minnesota plays at the NBA’s second-fastest pace. So if opposing ones aren’t dishing out passes against the Timberwolves, who is? Twos and threes. The Timberwolves give up the second-most assists per game to small forwards (4.84), which is where Bane spends 84% of his minutes.
Bane has been trying to become more of a ball-handler of late, too. He has notched at least three assists in three games this year, including matchups against the Lakers, Cavaliers, and Nuggets. His assist percentage (11.7%) isn’t anything to write home about, but Bane’s assists line is worth a half-unit play at this juice. I’m also including it in an SGP you can read about below.
3. De’Aaron Fox o5.5 Assists | +110 (.8u) at FD Sportsbook
4. De’Aaron Fox 8+ Assists | +350 (.2u) at FD Sportsbook
What are the books doing with this line? Fox is averaging 6.3 assists per game this year. While he has only gone over this total in half of his games, he posted a season-high 10 assists against the Suns when they met back in October. Yet he needs just a below-average showing to cash this plus-money prop. That’s value.
We targeted Fox back on Friday when he played the Charlotte Hornets. I liked the value there because Charlotte allows a lot of assists to opposing point guards; Phoenix allows even more. I also liked it because Charlotte ranked fifth in pace; the Suns rank third. This prop looks just as good (if not better) tonight, and I recommend that you pair it with other props in this game once they become available (hint: Buddy Hield three-pointers).
Also, I recommend that you split a unit between the normal prop total and the teased-up one. In doing so, you’ll increase your potential winnings by more than a half-unit without increasing your exposure.
5. SGP Jackson Jr. o2.5 3PT + Bane o2.5 AST + MEM +7.5 | +423 (.25u) at FD Sportsbook
I already wrote about JJJ and Bane above, and I love this parlay because there’s a chance for correlation. Bane assisted on two of JJJ’s three-pointers against the Nuggets, and, depending on how Memphis deploys their personnel tonight, he could help his teammate out again. We’ll mix this with a teased-down spread for the Grizzlies (they’re favored by 5.5 points) for just a bit of extra value.
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