It’s do-or-die time for the Dallas Mavericks on Tuesday in Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals. The Warriors have a commanding 3-0 lead and are one win away from returning to the NBA Finals.
We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks.
Below, I have laid out two prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Luka Doncic, Over 1.5 Steals (+100)
|Warriors vs. Mavericks||Warriors -1|
|Time | TV||9 p.m. ET | TNT|
As great as Luka Doncic has been on the offensive side of the court for the Mavericks, he’s been filling up the box score with defensive stats.
In fact, Luka has recorded at least one steal in nine straight games. Furthermore, Luka has at least two steals in eight of the 14 playoff games for the Mavs. Additionally, Luka has gone over this projection in two of out of the three games so far against the Warriors.
There’s no secret that the one weakness for the Warriors has been turning the ball over. According to NBA Advanced Stats, the Warriors are averaging 15.6 turnovers per game in the postseason, which ranks No. 13 amongst the 16 playoff teams this year.
If the Mavericks want to win Game 4, it will have to be on the defensive side of the basketball, so I expect Luka to continue his steals streak.
Kevon Looney, Over 9.5 Rebounds (-120)
The one area the Warriors have been abusing the Mavericks has been on the glass. Jason Kidd said after the Game 3 loss that they need to rebound the basketball better to have any chance of winning an outing in this series.
One player who’s been a thorn in the Dallas’ side has been big man Kevon Looney. In two out of the three games in this series, Looney has grabbed at least 10 or more rebounds. In fact, he’s had back-to-back games with 12 rebounds.
The Mavericks are allowing their opponents to grab 45 rebounds per game in the postseason, which ranks No. 13 amongst the 16 playoff teams.
Additionally, the Mavericks also rank No. 12 in defensive rebounding percentage.
I don’t see a reason why Looney’s rebounding success would slow down in this one, and I expect him to have a third straight game of double-digit rebounds.