The scene shifts to Dallas and in these playoffs home-court advantage has proven to be a larger factor than in previous years. Dallas’ series against the Suns was as stark a contrast as could be imagined, before game 7 at least. That makes it hard to imagine a similar up and down Dallas performance at home as was seen in San Francisco.
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Warriors vs. Mavericks Betting Odds
*Lines accurate at time of publication
Warriors vs. Mavericks Best Bets
Mavericks 1st Quarter -2 (-115, DraftKings)
At the Chase Center, the teams split the first quarter but the Mavs have been very good to start games in the playoffs, 9-5-1 straight up, and left some meat on the bone that could benefit them at home.
In the playoffs, Dallas has gotten 44.2% of their points from behind the arc and 47.1% in this series. Compared to most teams, focusing on how a team shoots from the three-point line takes extra importance for the Mavs.
In the first quarter of the series against the Warriors, Dallas is only shooting 26.5%. Given the likely boost, the Dallas role players will get while playing at home, a boost even close to the playoff average of 37.9% from deep should put the Mavs in a great place to get off to a good start.
Risk: 1.15 units on DraftKings to win 1 unit. (Playable to -122)
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Mavericks -2.5 (-110, BetMGM)
When Luka Doncic has been in the lineup, Dallas is 4-0 at home and won by an average of 17.8 points. That may be a high standard to keep against a team like the Warriors but it shows the difference in location can make for a team with only one star that relies on role players as the Mavs do.
On the other hand, Golden State has had their issues on the road, going 2-3, and especially with turnovers. Turnover problems are nothing new in this era of Warriors basketball but averaging 18.2 turnovers on the road in the playoffs is likely to be magnified more against the Mavs, who only turn the ball over 7.8 times per game at home in the playoffs.
Shooting from the outside and the possession game will be paramount in game 3 and those factors lean towards Dallas.
Risk: 1.1 units on BetMGM to win 1 unit. (Playable to -120)
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