Warriors vs. Mavericks Odds
|Time||8:30 p.m. ET|
|TV||NBA League Pass|
|Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.|
The Warriors look to avenge their meltdown loss to the Mavericks on Sunday while Luka Doncic looks to build on his squad’s two-game winning streak.
Who should we back in this Western Conference showdown?
Golden State Warriors
The Warriors have a few players listed on their injury report, including Damion Lee (quad, Questionable), Moses Moody (eye, Probable), Andre Iguodala (back, Out), Draymond Green (calf, back, out), and Klay Thompson (illness, Active).
Getting Thompson back will help this team, as it takes some of the pressure off of Curry and gives another layer to this offense.
The Warriors have been on a bit of a slide lately. They’ve won just four of their last 10 games and they’re just a half-game ahead of the Grizzlies for the No. 2 seed in the West.
So, what’s going on? Over their last 10 games, the Warriors’ defensive rating has taken a hit, and as a result, their Net Rating is just (-0.7) over this stretch, per NBA Advanced Stats.
However, I think this is just a slump more than anything — the Warriors are an excellent team and this is a good spot to buy low.
The Mavericks have looked great since trading away Kristaps Porzingis for Spencer Dinwiddie and Davis Bertans. They’re one of the hottest teams in basketball over the last two weeks with a +4.1 point differential, but it’s been for a different reason.
Over the course of the season, Dallas has struggled offensively, scoring 112.1 points per 100 possessions while allowing just 108.6 (6th).
But over these last two weeks, it’s seen its offense improve dramatically. The Mavs are scoring 118.6 points per 100 possessions (7th), but they are allowing 114.5 points per 100 (19th), per Cleaning the Glass. Their philosophy and identity as a team has changed a bit.
While this is not necessarily surprising considering Doncic is one of the best offensive players in the league and tailoring an offense entirely around his strengths makes sense. However, I question the sustainability of this if the Mavs’ offensive numbers falter at all.
On the season, the Warriors are still the second-best team in Adjusted Net Rating (+6.6), while the Mavericks are seventh-best (+3.3). When these two teams played just a few days ago, the Warriors were listed as favorites and then surrendered an absurd 26-1 run to lose, 107-101.
There are a few issues here. Namely, I don’t expect the Warriors to give up another run like that, and if we look at the underlying metrics, we can see there’s reason to believe this won’t happen again.
Dallas shot a blistering 66% from long mid-range, a significant increase on its season-long mark of 40.7%. This is a tremendous difference considering the generalized inefficiency of the long mid-range jumper.
On the flip side, the Warriors barely scratched 30% from 3 point range as a team, a downturn from their 36.2% season-long mark. This is where the return of Thompson should help.
All of this led to the Warriors scoring just 78.2 points in half-court play. To put this in perspective, Golden State’s average half-court output is 97.4 points, and the Pistons — who are the worst half-court team in the league — average 86.6 points per 100 half-court plays, per Cleaning the Glass.
Do we really expect this Mavericks’ defense, which has faltered over the last two weeks, to hold the Warriors to a mark worse than the Pistons twice within the same week? That’s doubtful.
I think this line move is an overreaction based on recent performance. Had the Warriors pulled out that victory the other night despite the 26-1 run, I don’t think we’d see the Mavericks as favorites.
The Warriors are a live dog, and I’d split my bet on both the spread and moneyline.
Pick: Warriors +2 | Warriors ML +110